[
  {
    "event": "2018\u20132019 partial shutdown",
    "fiscal_year": 2019,
    "source": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937",
    "source_date": "2019-01-28",
    "evidence_type": "Contemporaneous model estimate, not an audited final loss",
    "metrics": [
      {
        "measure": "Delayed federal discretionary spending",
        "billions": 18,
        "unit": "dollars",
        "meaning": "Compensation and purchases delayed; not permanently lost GDP"
      },
      {
        "measure": "Q4 2018 real GDP reduction",
        "billions": 3,
        "unit": "2019 dollars",
        "meaning": "Relative to estimated no-shutdown output"
      },
      {
        "measure": "Q1 2019 real GDP reduction",
        "billions": 8,
        "unit": "2019 dollars",
        "meaning": "Includes estimated resumption effects"
      },
      {
        "measure": "GDP not expected to be recovered",
        "billions": 3,
        "unit": "2019 dollars",
        "meaning": "Part of the combined $11 billion quarterly shortfall, not additional to it"
      }
    ],
    "limits": "Considerable uncertainty. Excludes some indirect permit, certification and lending effects. National totals do not measure any individual household loss."
  },
  {
    "event": "October 2013 shutdown",
    "fiscal_year": 2014,
    "source": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-15-86",
    "source_date": "2014-10-15",
    "public_release": "2014-11-14",
    "evidence_type": "GAO review of selected DOE, HHS and DOT activities",
    "effects": [
      {
        "program": "NIH clinical-trial registry",
        "effect": "New registrations initially stopped; a small recalled staff reopened the registry.",
        "limit": "Does not establish that all clinical trials stopped."
      },
      {
        "program": "NIH grant review",
        "effect": "Review of more than 13,700 applications was rescheduled; NIH met the next January 2014 milestone.",
        "limit": "Most current recipients could still draw funds."
      },
      {
        "program": "DOE Environmental Management",
        "effect": "More than 1,700 contractor employees were laid off or required to take leave after stop-work orders.",
        "limit": "Contract activity generally continued using multiyear funding; some programs reported four months to recover."
      },
      {
        "program": "Merchant Marine Academy",
        "effect": "Closure required an academic-calendar change to allow eligible students to graduate on time.",
        "limit": "Longer-term effects cannot readily be separated from other budget events."
      }
    ],
    "follow_through": "GAO recommendation to record lessons learned marked closed\u2013implemented; OMB changed Circular A-11 in June 2015. This records procedural follow-through, not proof that future harms were prevented."
  }
]