{
  "case": "Aviation: discretion, competition, service and public support",
  "working_source": "WP-031, March 2026 draft, sections I, IV and V",
  "working_source_sha256": "72c505bc575e9c2a995d06f3797d4a8a5b65f73871b8564c4649e303746e2176",
  "preserved_principle": "The central finding is not that deregulation caused these crises but that industries cannot claim free-market freedoms while retaining public rescue eligibility.",
  "editorial_reconciliation": "WP-031 also acknowledges efficiency gains and says the rescue cycle does not occur in every sector. Do not carry its every-sector language forward as a tested causal result. Its $59 billion airline figure is not certified as a reconciled total across all historical interventions.",
  "rows": [
    {
      "stage": "Rule change",
      "finding": "The 1978 Airline Deregulation Act phased out federal control of domestic fares and service.",
      "source": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-06-630",
      "date": "2006-06-09",
      "limit": "This identifies the institutional change; it does not attribute every later outcome to that act."
    },
    {
      "stage": "Competition and consolidation",
      "finding": "GAO\u2019s 2026 review found short-run fare increases of 1\u20138% in three strong merger studies on overlapping routes. Its longer-term indicators nevertheless suggested increased competition; estimated fares including available ancillary fees were lower in 2024 than in 2007.",
      "source": "https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-107740/index.html",
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "limit": "Route-specific merger effects and broad trends answer different questions. Neither proves a universal path from consolidation to higher fares."
    },
    {
      "stage": "Citizen access",
      "finding": "GAO reported average daily departures per route at nonhub airports were 19% lower in 2024 than in 2018. More than 70% of nonhub airports without EAS support experienced declines.",
      "source": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-109182",
      "date": "2026-06-04",
      "limit": "Nonhub airports are a defined population. Workforce and operating costs also matter; this is not an isolated estimate of deregulation\u2019s effect."
    },
    {
      "stage": "Public intervention",
      "finding": "CBO reported $63 billion provided for pandemic payroll support and $59 billion distributed. The separate Section 4003 loan program authorized up to $46 billion and distributed less than $3 billion.",
      "source": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62264",
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "limit": "Payroll assistance supported employee pay. The loan program also included national-security businesses. Authority, cash distributed and net cost are different measures."
    },
    {
      "stage": "Return and remaining exposure",
      "finding": "Recipients of the largest payroll awards issued $15 billion in notes; more than half remained outstanding in April 2026. Public companies also issued warrants.",
      "source": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62264",
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "limit": "Repayments and asset proceeds belong in a cost reconciliation. These facts do not prove that the support had no worker or public benefit."
    }
  ],
  "remaining_scope": "This is one completed source comparison. Full seven-sector history, individual rescue terms and public-result analysis remain unfinished."
}