{ "source_file": "PF01_Where_the_Benefit_Stopped_20260905.docx", "source_sha256": "f9e5441b9897b5baf6479dd183e40b458fa33b1857e91d946067903c2400fff7", "checked": "2026-09-05", "status": "Original numerical tables preserved as supplied; only explicitly identified headline comparisons independently checked.", "tables": [ { "table": 1, "headers": [ "Item", "Figure", "Period", "Source" ], "rows": [ [ "Home price to household income", "5.0x, against 3.2x averaged through the 1990s", "2025", "Harvard JCHS, State of the Nation's Housing 2026, 17 Jun 2026" ], [ "Renters cost burdened (over 30% of income)", "22.7 million — 49% of all renters", "2024", "JCHS from Census ACS" ], [ "Renters severely burdened (over 50%)", "12.1 million — 26% of all renters", "2024", "JCHS from Census ACS" ], [ "Renters earning under $30,000", "83% cost burdened; 67% severely burdened", "2024", "JCHS from Census ACS" ], [ "Rise in cost-burdened renters since 2019", "up 2.3 million households", "2019–2024", "JCHS" ], [ "Rental units under $1,000 per month", "fell by more than 7 million", "2014–2024", "JCHS" ], [ "Renter income against rent", "incomes up 9% in real terms; rents up 30%", "2001–2024", "JCHS" ], [ "Home prices", "up 54% nationwide", "2020–2025", "JCHS" ], [ "Property tax and insurance", "tax up 31%; premiums up 72%", "2019–2025", "JCHS" ], [ "Family health premium", "$26,993, of which the worker pays $6,850", "2025", "KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey, 22 Oct 2025" ], [ "Family premium against wages and prices", "premium up 148.1%; production and nonsupervisory wages up 94.5%; CPI up 64.9%", "2005–2025", "Computed from KFF, BLS AHETPI, BLS CPI-U" ], [ "Health spending", "$5.3 trillion; $15,474 per person; 18.0% of GDP", "2024", "CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts" ], [ "Public four-year tuition and fees, real", "up 244% above inflation", "1980–81 to 2023–24", "NCES Digest 2024, Table 330.10" ], [ "Private four-year tuition and fees, real", "up 205% above inflation", "1980–81 to 2023–24", "NCES Digest 2024, Table 330.10" ], [ "Student loan debt outstanding", "$1.651 trillion", "Q2 2026", "Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 11 Aug 2026" ], [ "Groceries", "up 33.0%", "2019 to Jul 2026", "BLS CPI, food at home" ], [ "Food as share of before-tax income", "bottom fifth 33.0%; top fifth 6.4%", "2024", "USDA ERS from BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey" ], [ "Centre-based infant care", "$15,636 per year — 30.8% more than in-state public four-year tuition ($11,950)", "2025 / 2025–26", "Child Care Aware of America, 14 May 2026; College Board, Nov 2025" ] ] }, { "table": 2, "headers": [ "Item", "Figure", "Period", "Source" ], "rows": [ [ "Corporate profits after tax, share of GDP", "12.07% — the highest reading since the series opens", "Q2 2026", "BEA NIPA, CPATAX divided by GDP" ], [ "The same measure, historical average", "6.13%", "1947–1999", "BEA NIPA" ], [ "Chief executive to typical worker pay", "281 to 1 (realised measure); 212.6 to 1 (granted measure)", "2024", "Economic Policy Institute, 25 Sep 2025" ], [ "The same ratio", "21 to 1", "1965", "Economic Policy Institute" ], [ "The same ratio", "60 to 1", "1989", "Economic Policy Institute" ], [ "Chief executive pay growth", "up 1,094%", "1978–2024", "Economic Policy Institute" ], [ "Typical worker pay growth, same period", "up 26%", "1978–2024", "Economic Policy Institute" ] ] }, { "table": 3, "headers": [ "Measure", "Current", "Peak" ], "rows": [ [ "BLS, nonfarm business sector labor share, index 2017 = 100", "93.446 (Q2 2026) — lowest since the series opens in 1947", "117.123 (Q4 1960). Current level is 20.2% below." ], [ "BEA, employee compensation as a share of gross domestic income", "50.32% (Q2 2026) — lowest since the series opens", "58.73% (Q1 1970). Current level is 8.4 points below." ] ] }, { "table": 4, "headers": [ "Group", "Q1 2026", "Q3 1989" ], "rows": [ [ "Top 1%", "31.6%", "22.8%" ], [ "Next 9%", "36.3%", "38.0%" ], [ "Next 40%", "29.6%", "35.7%" ], [ "Bottom 50%", "2.5%", "3.5%" ] ] }, { "table": 5, "headers": [ "Measure", "Change", "Source" ], "rows": [ [ "Real median household income", "up 38.6% over forty years (1984 to 2024); up 0.6% since 2019", "Census CPS ASEC, 2024 dollars" ], [ "Real median usual weekly earnings, full-time", "up 15.2% over forty years (1986 to 2026); up 12.8% since 1979", "BLS CPS, 1982–84 dollars" ] ] }, { "table": 6, "headers": [ "Estimate", "2022 share", "Note" ], "rows": [ [ "World Inequality Database (Piketty, Saez, Zucman)", "20.73% pre-tax", "Series carried forward flat for 2023 and 2024 — those years are extrapolation, not observation" ], [ "Congressional Budget Office, Jan 2026", "18% before transfers and taxes; 14% after", "Rose from 9% and 7% respectively in 1979" ], [ "Auten and Splinter (Treasury / JCT), May 2025", "15.5% pre-tax; 10.3% after", "The principal lower-bound estimate" ] ] } ], "additional_checks": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "method": "Compared specified PF01 entries with the original research publishers. Original tables retained; unlisted claims remain unverified.", "housing_source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/press-releases/high-costs-and-slumping-demand-squeeze-housing-affordable-units-remain-short-supply", "housing_date": "2026-06-17", "confirmed_table_1_rows": [ 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9 ], "qualifications": [ "Row 6: the under-$1,000 rental threshold is in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.", "Row 1: the release supports nearly five times income in 2025, but not the exact 5.0/3.2 historical comparison.", "Rows 4 and 7 are not established by the inspected release. The full report returned HTTP 403." ], "health_source": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2025-employer-health-benefits-survey/", "health_date": "2025-10-22", "confirmed_health_row": 10, "health_scope": "Employer-sponsored family coverage; average total premium $26,993, worker contribution $6,850. Survey covers non-federal public/private employers with ten or more workers. These are not all household medical costs.", "unverified": "The premium/wage/CPI row is resolved in premium_growth_check. Remaining unlisted PF01 claims still require verification.", "national_health_spending": { "table_1_row": 12, "status": "confirmed", "source": "https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet", "source_section": "Historical NHE, 2024", "period": "2024", "values": { "total_trillion_dollars": 5.3, "per_person_dollars": 15474, "share_of_gdp_percent": 18.0 }, "scope": "National spending across public and private payers. The per-person amount is not a household out-of-pocket bill. Do not add employer premiums to this total." }, "student_debt": { "table_1_row": 15, "status": "confirmed", "source": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260811", "publication_date": "2026-08-11", "source_section": "Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q2 2026, Student Debt row", "period": "2026 Q2", "balance_trillion_dollars": 1.651, "scope": "Outstanding nominal student-loan balance estimated from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. This is a stock of debt, not annual tuition or annual payments." } }, "premium_growth_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table_1_row": 11, "status": "All three components resolved against identified sources: premium corrected to 146.2%; wage 94.5% and CPI 64.9% reproduced with annual-average qualification.", "source": "https://files.kff.org/attachment/Tables-EHBS-2025-Section-01.xlsx", "source_sha256": "a24a224c2322dd42e74a772f61fc324d55f24849fcfce08129fdd290e19f2821", "cells": { "2005": "Figure 1.12!C11", "2025": "Figure 1.12!C31" }, "premium_2005_dollars": 10962, "premium_2025_dollars": 26993, "formula": "(26993 / 10962 - 1) * 100", "calculated_percent": 146.24156175880313, "display_percent": 146.2, "PF01_percent": 148.1, "editorial_resolution": "Use 146.2% when citing this downloaded 2025 table. The origin of PF01’s 148.1% remains unresolved; do not label it a verified KFF result.", "limits": "Current downloaded series, not a reconstruction of an earlier vintage. The 2025 KFF survey excludes employers with fewer than ten workers. Wage averages describe this employee group, not every worker’s raise. CPI describes an average basket, not each family’s costs.", "recent_context": { "period": "2020–2025", "premium_percent": 26, "wages_percent": 28.6, "inflation_percent": 23.5, "source": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2025-employer-health-benefits-survey/", "section": "Cost of Health Insurance, Premium Changes Over Time", "implication": "The longer-run claim must not imply premiums outpaced wages in every shorter period." }, "annual_series_checks": { "AHETPI": { "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AHETPI", "producer": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "annual_means": { "2005": 16.115000000000002, "2025": 31.33833333333333 }, "monthly_observations": { "2005": 12, "2025": 12 }, "calculated_percent": 94.46685282862755, "display_percent": 94.5 }, "CPIAUCNS": { "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS", "producer": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "annual_means": { "2005": 195.29166666666666, "2025": 321.943 }, "monthly_observations": { "2005": 12, "2025": 11 }, "calculated_percent": 64.8524002560273, "display_percent": 64.9 } }, "series_file_sha256": "721f26ae640bf014e454e6988a457f5148e424dfcc4060fbf048e89895b57560", "method": "Arithmetic mean of available monthly observations in each calendar year, then (2025 mean / 2005 mean - 1) * 100. AHETPI is seasonally adjusted hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory private-sector employees; CPIAUCNS is unadjusted all-items CPI-U.", "missing_month": "October 2025 CPI is unavailable because of the lapse in appropriations. The 2025 CPI mean uses eleven published months; 2005 uses twelve.", "missing_month_source": "https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical1967base_us_table.htm" }, "food_cost_checks": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "grocery_prices": { "table_1_row": 16, "status": "confirmed with explicit baseline", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SAF11", "producer": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "series": "Food at home CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–1984=100", "source_sha256": "3d89f67a708fe370e2e7669f43c45538cad5c865bd9d23b9fc01e8a5eb03edd6", "baseline": "2019 calendar-year average of twelve monthly observations", "baseline_index": 241.7745, "endpoint": "July 2026", "endpoint_index": 321.643, "formula": "(July 2026 index / 2019 annual mean - 1) * 100", "calculated_percent": 33.034294352795676, "display_percent": 33.0, "scope": "A price-index comparison, not proof every household’s grocery spending rose by this amount. The starting point is an annual average, not July or December 2019." }, "food_income_share": { "table_1_row": 17, "status": "confirmed", "source": "https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/58372", "publication_date": "2026-04-30", "data_year": 2024, "lowest_fifth_percent": 33.0, "highest_fifth_percent": 6.4, "denominator": "before-tax income", "scope": "Food spending across income groups, not a groceries-only price index. A comparison between groups in 2024 does not establish a change over time. Do not mix this denominator with older after-tax-income charts." } }, "tuition_checks": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "source": "https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d24/tables/dt24_330.10.asp", "source_sha256": "90241331c9b8026c7455d041f696ed4adc4f078951079b0ba9856c9938a981fd", "table": "NCES Digest 2024, Table 330.10", "period": "1980–81 to 2023–24", "units": "constant 2023–24 dollars; CPI adjusted to academic-year basis", "public": { "table_1_row": 13, "status": "confirmed", "earlier": 2872, "later": 9872, "calculated_percent": 243.73259052924791, "rounded_percent": 244, "column": "Tuition and required fees, four-year, public institutions" }, "private": { "table_1_row": 14, "status": "correction required for consistent category", "earlier_all_private": 12925, "later_all_private": 35911, "calculated_percent": 177.8413926499033, "rounded_percent": 178, "later_nonprofit_private": 39408, "mixed_category_percent": 204.89748549323016, "PF01_percent": 205, "finding": "205% is reproducible by comparing the historical all-private row with the later nonprofit row. This suggests a category mismatch; it does not prove how the original author calculated it. Use 178% for the all-private comparison." }, "scope": "Average charges for full-time students, weighted by full-time-equivalent undergraduate enrollment. These are published tuition and required fees, not net prices after aid. Public amounts use in-district tuition. Institutional coverage changes after 1995–96 are documented in the table; this is not a fixed cohort of colleges." }, "remaining_housing_checks": { "checked": "2026-09-06", "status": "Three previously open housing comparisons resolved against Harvard JCHS primary publications", "rows": [ { "table_1_row": 1, "finding": "The State of the Nation’s Housing 2026, printed page 23, reports 4.7 for 2025, 5.0 as the 2022 all-time high, 4.1 in 2019, and a 3.2 average through the 1990s. Correct PF01’s 2025 value from 5.0 to 4.7 in reader-facing use.", "source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_The_State_of_the_Nations_Housing_2026_0.pdf" }, { "table_1_row": 4, "finding": "In 2024, 83% of renter households earning under $30,000 were cost burdened, including 67% with severe burdens, according to America’s Rental Housing 2026. A separate June 17 State of the Nation’s Housing summary reports 66% severe burden for the same stated income group and year. This does not negate the 67% figure in the rental report; cite the named publication and do not merge their rounded values.", "source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2026.pdf", "additional_source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/ten-takeaways-2026-state-nations-housing" }, { "table_1_row": 7, "finding": "The publisher’s Six Takeaways page reports that renter incomes rose 9% in real terms while rents rose 30% from 2001 to 2024. This is a comparison of aggregate real changes, not proof of the experience of every renter.", "source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/six-takeaways-americas-rental-housing-2026" } ], "release_rule": "Use 4.7 for the 2025 home-price-to-income ratio, 67% when citing America’s Rental Housing 2026, and the 9%/30% comparison with its 2001–2024 real-term scope. Preserve the original PF01 table and identify its 5.0 value as the 2022 high, not the 2025 value." }, "profit_share_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table_2_rows": [ 1, 2 ], "status": "Numerical ratio, historical average, and series maximum confirmed", "source_sha256": "3e27dd2fe18282a7b9d0f5ac4d4843a8e841f42c694888f4eb1feba86903b1c5", "sources": [ "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPATAX", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP" ], "producer": "Bureau of Economic Analysis", "numerator": "Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, CPATAX, BEA A551RC", "denominator": "Gross domestic product, GDP, BEA A191RC", "units": "Both inputs in billions of current dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates", "formula": "100 * CPATAX / GDP in the same quarter", "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "profit_billion": 3921.445, "gdp_billion": 32486.066, "ratio_percent": 12.071159985945975 }, "historical_mean_percent": 6.13078753788538, "historical_period": "1947 Q1 through 1999 Q4", "historical_quarters": 212, "record_test_period": "1947 Q1 through 2026 Q2", "record_test_quarters": 318, "peak": { "date": "2026-04-01", "profit_billion": 3921.445, "gdp_billion": 32486.066, "ratio_percent": 12.071159985945975 }, "limits": "Ratio of two national-account series, not profit divided by corporate sales, not an individual firm’s margin, and not evidence that households received no gains. Annualized inputs are not literal cash received during the quarter. Historical mean is the arithmetic mean of quarterly ratios. Results reflect the downloaded data vintage and may be revised." }, "labor_share_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table": 3, "status": "Both rows reproduced; extrema checked over 318 quarters each", "source_sha256": "4f5243bef224ad00722b1f79d48119c1c9634ccf6a85918f2f47ddbb47d8ccc4", "sources": [ "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006173", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COE", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDI" ], "checks": { "PRS85006173": { "quarters_checked": 318, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 93.446 }, "minimum": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 93.446 }, "maximum": { "date": "1960-10-01", "value": 117.123 }, "relative_decline_from_peak_percent": 20.215499944502792, "point_decline_from_peak": 23.677000000000007 }, "COE/GDI": { "quarters_checked": 318, "latest": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 50.315452169508205 }, "minimum": { "date": "2026-04-01", "value": 50.315452169508205 }, "maximum": { "date": "1970-01-01", "value": 58.7312320271082 }, "relative_decline_from_peak_percent": 14.32930923995529, "point_decline_from_peak": 8.415779857599993 } }, "definitions": { "PRS85006173": "BLS nonfarm-business labor-share index for all workers; seasonally adjusted; 2017=100. An index level is not a percentage share.", "COE/GDI": "100 times BEA compensation of employees paid divided by gross domestic income; both current-dollar series at seasonally adjusted annual rates." }, "limits": "Distinct measures with different scope. Do not combine them or infer that the remainder of either is corporate profit. Declining share does not by itself mean declining real pay. Current data vintage; revisions can change history." }, "ceo_pay_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table_2_rows": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "status": "Confirmed against publisher’s Figure A and Table 1; underlying proprietary microdata not independently replicated", "source": "https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay/", "publication_date": "2025-09-25", "values": { "2024_realized_ratio": 280.72, "2024_granted_ratio": 212.57, "1965_realized_ratio": 20.62, "1989_realized_ratio": 60.11, "1978_2024_real_ceo_growth_percent": 1094, "1978_2024_real_worker_growth_percent": 26 }, "rounding": "PF01’s 281, 212.6, 21, and 60 are consistent with the published values. Growth rates use EPI’s unrounded inputs; do not recalculate from rounded dollar amounts in Table 1.", "scope": "CEOs of the 350 largest U.S. firms by sales. Realized pay includes exercised options and vested stock awards; granted pay values those awards at grant. Worker compensation includes wages and benefits for production/nonsupervisory workers. Ratios average firm-specific comparisons; they are not a ratio of two overall averages.", "qualification": "The source describes the 2024 CEO value as projected. Earlier ratios use a separately documented historical construction; this is not a fixed panel of the same people.", "comparison_limit": "The 1978–2024 worker growth series uses all-private-sector production/nonsupervisory compensation. The CEO-to-worker ratio uses workers in the firms’ industries. Keep these denominators distinct." }, "real_income_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table": 5, "status": "Both rows reproduced with explicit periods", "sources": [ "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q" ], "source_sha256": "d623f2fd689519aa200b408d21a8d85929df1f69d42a9f01f971760821c0ce95", "download_format": "FRED returned a ZIP containing annual.csv and quarterly.csv because the series have different frequencies.", "calculations": [ { "comparison": "Household income, forty years", "start_date": "1984-01-01", "end_date": "2024-01-01", "start_value": 60420.0, "end_value": 83730.0, "calculated_percent": 38.57994041708044, "display_percent": 38.6 }, { "comparison": "Household income, since 2019", "start_date": "2019-01-01", "end_date": "2024-01-01", "start_value": 83260.0, "end_value": 83730.0, "calculated_percent": 0.5644967571462933, "display_percent": 0.6 }, { "comparison": "Weekly earnings, forty years", "start_date": "1986-04-01", "end_date": "2026-04-01", "start_value": 328.0, "end_value": 378.0, "calculated_percent": 15.243902439024382, "display_percent": 15.2 }, { "comparison": "Weekly earnings, since 1979", "start_date": "1979-04-01", "end_date": "2026-04-01", "start_value": 335.0, "end_value": 378.0, "calculated_percent": 12.8358208955224, "display_percent": 12.8 } ], "definitions": "Household income: Census annual median in 2024 dollars using the published inflation adjustment. Weekly earnings: BLS median usual earnings of full-time wage and salary workers age 16+, before deductions, in 1982–84 CPI-adjusted dollars, seasonally adjusted. Quarterly dates ending 04-01 represent Q2.", "limits": "Weekly comparisons use Q2 in every endpoint year, not annual averages. These are population medians, not a fixed group followed over time. Household composition and the employed population can change. Different units and inflation methods mean their dollar levels should not be compared directly." }, "wealth_share_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table": 4, "status": "All eight endpoint values confirmed; each column sums to 100%", "source_sha256": "09170313f1619005348aa362641c0671480bbbda482d34710cc86901d78313ce", "producer": "Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts", "rows": [ { "group": "Top 1%", "series": "WFRBST01134", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBST01134", "1989_Q3_percent": 22.8, "2026_Q1_percent": 31.6, "change_percentage_points": 8.8 }, { "group": "Next 9%", "series": "WFRBSN09161", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSN09161", "1989_Q3_percent": 38.0, "2026_Q1_percent": 36.3, "change_percentage_points": -1.7 }, { "group": "Next 40%", "series": "WFRBSN40188", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSN40188", "1989_Q3_percent": 35.7, "2026_Q1_percent": 29.6, "change_percentage_points": -6.1 }, { "group": "Bottom 50%", "series": "WFRBSB50215", "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB50215", "1989_Q3_percent": 3.5, "2026_Q1_percent": 2.5, "change_percentage_points": -1.0 } ], "definition": "Groups ranked by household wealth; net worth means assets minus liabilities. Quarterly shares of aggregate net worth, not seasonally adjusted.", "method": "The DFA combines aggregate Financial Accounts with the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances. Quarterly estimates are not a fresh quarterly survey of every household.", "limits": "Shares of wealth are not shares of annual income or shares of wealth gains. A group’s share can fall while its dollar wealth rises. Membership can change between dates; no fixed cohort or causal claim is established." }, "income_share_checks": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "table": 6, "CBO": { "status": "Four rounded shares confirmed in the January 2026 report text", "source": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62300", "1979": { "before_percent": 9, "after_percent": 7 }, "2022": { "before_percent": 18, "after_percent": 14 }, "scope": "Top 1% of households; before includes market income and social insurance. After adds means-tested transfers and subtracts federal taxes. Includes noncash benefits; not spendable cash.", "locators": [ "Income Groups’ Shares of Income Before Transfers and Taxes, 1979 to 2022", "Income Groups’ Shares of Income After Transfers and Taxes, 1979 to 2022", "Terms Used in This Report" ] }, "Auten_Splinter": { "status": "Both 2022 endpoint values confirmed in the authors’ published workbook; underlying tax microdata not independently replicated", "paper": "https://davidsplinter.com/AS-Update-2025.pdf", "workbook": "https://davidsplinter.com/AS-Update-2025.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5f5847e1215767782a857d4f6e2fab8e7347a309a9e6a6d8e7f0e275d234a502", "cells": { "year": "T-A1!A67", "pretax_share": "T-A1!B67", "aftertax_share": "T-A1!D67" }, "2022": { "pretax_percent": 15.506403408610703, "aftertax_percent": 10.307886285285074 }, "method_limits": "National-income estimates exclude capital gains; allocation assumptions include government consumption and deficits. The baseline is not a universal lower bound on inequality. The authors distinguish their sensitivity ranges from confidence intervals (May 2025 paper, pages 7–9).", "recovery": "The spreadsheet URL printed in the paper returned 404. The author’s research home page linked the available AS-Update-2025.xlsx file." }, "WID": { "status": "2022–2024 published values and population definition confirmed; year-specific extrapolation classification remains unresolved", "source": "https://wid.world/bulk_download/WID_data_US.csv", "metadata_source": "https://wid.world/bulk_download/WID_metadata_US.csv", "source_sha256": "ffca2b9eef776420b4f2754b2598a6bc81382f8f9604f78327aa6c02341d06b4", "metadata_sha256": "18777df2d9f1dd67b7474f9f1bfe0c3878dae883b41f6ffd0b29a781502fae43", "series_in_download": "sptincj992", "series_in_dictionary": "sptinc992j", "code_note": "Downloaded bulk format places population j before age 992; the dictionary example uses age before population. Identity checked against the explicit age/pop columns and metadata, not code order alone.", "population": "Adults; resources split equally within couples, then ranked as individuals rather than households", "percentile": "p99p100", "values": [ { "country": "US", "variable": "sptincj992", "percentile": "p99p100", "year": "2022", "value": "0.2073", "age": "992", "pop": "j", "data_quality": "5" }, { "country": "US", "variable": "sptincj992", "percentile": "p99p100", "year": "2023", "value": "0.2073", "age": "992", "pop": "j", "data_quality": "5" }, { "country": "US", "variable": "sptincj992", "percentile": "p99p100", "year": "2024", "value": "0.2073", "age": "992", "pop": "j", "data_quality": "5" } ], "concept": "Pre-tax national income; pension distributions already included. Not cash wages, household income, or wealth.", "remaining_check": "The bulk files supply quality scores but no year-specific extrapolation field for this series. Identical values do not establish observation, extrapolation, or absence of change. Consult the cited extension paper or API imputation metadata before describing 2023–2024 as independently measured outcomes.", "extension_note_checked": "Technical Note 2025/10, version February 13, 2026, checked September 5. It describes expanded global coverage but does not establish this series’ 2023–2024 imputation status. Next source needed: year-specific API metadata or the US processing/extension code.", "extension_note_source": "https://wid.world/document/wid-income-and-wealth-distributional-series-updated-and-extended-coverage-1800-2024-world-inequality-lab-technical-note-2025-10/" }, "comparison_rule": "Do not average the three estimates or call them a statistical confidence interval. Establish matching income concepts, populations, tax and transfer treatments, and dates before direct comparison." }, "argument_and_action_revision": { "date": "2026-09-05", "source_passage": "PF01 section 1: The question is not who was helped along the way — it is where the benefit stopped.", "preservation": "Quoted sentence retained; source DOCX unchanged. New public-benefit standard and request are proposed editorial language awaiting final author review.", "scope": "Restores the user’s citizen-benefit argument without repeating unsupported universal claims that industry always gains, every essential cost outran wages over one shared period, or no household benefited.", "action": "One named measure, its promised benefit, responsible office, dated evidence request, reply record and correction route; no message sent." }, "low_income_housing_check": { "checked": "2026-09-06", "table": 1, "row": 4, "source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2026.pdf", "source_date": "2026-03-12", "status": "PF01’s 83% total-burden and 67% severe-burden figures confirmed against America’s Rental Housing 2026", "confirmed": "In 2024, 83% of renter households earning under $30,000 were cost burdened, including 67% with severe burdens, according to America’s Rental Housing 2026.", "discrepancy": "A separate June 17 State of the Nation’s Housing summary reports 66% severe burden for the same stated income group and year. This does not negate the 67% figure in the rental report; cite the named publication and do not merge their rounded values.", "definitions": "Income group is renter households under $30,000, not all renters. Housing burden includes housing and utilities. Severe burdens are included within total burdens.", "next_evidence": "Unrounded tables would be needed to explain the one-point difference between the two Harvard publications. No explanation is asserted. PF01’s 67% may be used when attributed to America’s Rental Housing 2026.", "report_notes_check": "America’s Rental Housing 2026, printed pages 25–26, reports 67% severe burden. Figure 21 adjusts household incomes with CPI-U, treats zero or negative income as severely burdened, and treats households owing no rent as unburdened. These conventions must accompany a comparison.", "report_notes_source": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2026_embargoed.pdf", "home_ratio_context": "The directly inspected State of the Nation’s Housing 2026 report gives 4.7 for 2025, 5.0 as the 2022 all-time high, and a 3.2 average through the 1990s. Reader-facing use corrects PF01’s 2025 value to 4.7." }, "housing_ownership_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "sources": [ "https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr425/Q425press.pdf", "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108675", "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106643" ], "census": { "period": "2025 Q4; November and December only", "population": "Households with householder under 35", "homeownership_percent": 37.9, "margin_of_error_percentage_points": 0.8, "confidence_percent": 90, "location": "Table 6, printed page 9", "limit": "No October collection because of lapse in federal funding. Census cautions against quarter comparisons. This is not the share of all people under 35 who own homes, nor a verified change from 1980." }, "gao": { "observation_year": 2024, "publication_date": "2026-03-24", "markets": [ "Cincinnati", "Dallas", "Jacksonville", "Nashville", "Phoenix", "Seattle" ], "definition": "Investors with at least 5,000 single-family homes nationwide and homes in at least five metro areas", "single_family_rental_share_range_percent": [ 4, 22 ], "all_single_family_share": "Less than 1% to 3%", "limit": "Selected, nongeneralizable six-market sample. Definition differs from some prior studies. No national estimate or investor-caused reduction in young homeownership established." }, "original_claim_status": "Original chapbook 1980-to-present ten-point decline and national all-single-family three-percent claim not established by these sources. Original wording preserved in review disclosure." }, "student_debt_check": { "checked": "2026-09-05", "balance": { "source": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260811", "publication_date": "2026-08-11", "period": "2026 Q2", "trillions_dollars": 1.651, "quarterly_change_billions": -7, "annual_change_billions": 13, "measure": "New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, nationally representative sample of anonymized Equifax credit data", "limit": "Credit-report-based aggregate; not an average borrower balance or the same measure as every federal lending statistic. Does not establish repayment duration, household affordability, or interest growth relative to wages." }, "repayment_source": "https://studentaid.gov/articles/repayment-calculator/", "repayment_limit": "FSA calculator estimates eligible plans, monthly payment, total principal/interest and end date; eligibility depends on loan type and disbursement date, and final terms are set by servicer after processing. No average realized repayment duration established. No plan enrollment or financial account access performed.", "original_claim_status": "The undated $1.7 trillion figure is replaced with a named and dated measure, not declared false across all datasets. Interest-faster-than-wages and average generation-to-repay claims require matched income/interest data and observed borrower-cohort repayment histories; omitted from proposed prose, preserved in original." } }